ANTHROPIC ALIGNMENT LEAD: 80% (!) chance we are all about to die.
When he said ">10%" he was softpedaling it
Also, when Coxon said we might die "this decade" he meant in the next ~3 YEARS
I appreciate the candour of this tweet but I think the “>10%” phrasing still undersells things as of 2022, Evan assigns an ~80% chance to existential risks from...