# Anthropic 对齐负责人：AI 灭绝风险约 80%

- 来源：AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️ (@AISafetyMemes)
- 发布时间：2026-09-11 08:24
- AIHOT 分数：37
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.news/items/cmtw7v9te06zerolkeqm1bnhh
- 原文链接：https://x.com/AISafetyMemes/status/2098206015972102613

## AI 摘要

Anthropic 对齐负责人 Evan 被指对 AI 存在性风险给出约 80% 的概率，而非其此前所说的“>10%”；引用推文称该下限表述低估了真实风险，容易让人误以为有 90% 概率一切正常。主推文还称，Coxon 所说的“这十年内”实际指未来约 3 年。

## 正文

ANTHROPIC ALIGNMENT LEAD: 80% (!) chance we are all about to die.

When he said ">10%" he was softpedaling it

Also, when Coxon said we might die "this decade" he meant in the next ~3 YEARS

### 引用推文

> sarah：I appreciate the candour of this tweet but I think the “>10%” phrasing still undersells things as of 2022, Evan assigns an ~80% chance to existential risks from...