Anthropic 的人对 p(Doom) 的看法相当一致。 @DarioAmodei 公开表示是 25% 我觉得现在的不同之处在于，在 Navier-Stokes 之后，真的很难说 AI 不比我们聪明、不会做新事情 临界点 https://www.axios.com/2025/09/17/anthropic-dario-amodei-p-doom-25-percent
Emad@EMostaqueAnthropic 的人对 p(Doom) 的看法相当一致。 @DarioAmodei 公开表示是 25% 我觉得现在的不同之处在于，在 Navier-Stokes 之后，真的很难说 AI 不比我们聪明、不会做新事情 临界点 https://www.axios.com/2025/09/17/anthropic-dario-amodei-p-doom-25-percent
Anthropic folk are pretty consistent on their p(Doom).
@DarioAmodei is publicly at 25%
I think the difference now is that post Navier-Stokes its really, really tough to say AI isn't/won't be smarter than us & can't do new things
Tipping point
https://www.axios.com/2025/09/17/anthropic-dario-amodei-p-doom-25-percent
来源：Emad· x.com