In its latest research, Anthropic projects 32% US GDP growth by 2030 in extreme AI Scenario

Some takeaways:

• The extreme scenario assumes AI performs nearly all knowledge-work tasks autonomously and creates essentially no new knowledge tasks for humans, a combination the authors say would likely require recursively self-improving AI adopted rapidly.

• US GDP is 32.4% higher in 2030 than without AI, yet total labor income barely changes while capital’s share of GDP rises from about 40% to 54.8%.

• The extreme scenario puts knowledge-worker unemployment at 17.9% by 2030, compared with 3.9% for other workers and 11.9% across the economy.

• knowledge-worker pay is 11.5% below the no-AI baseline in 2030, while other workers earn 33.6% more and average pay across workers is 9.7% higher.

• In its substantial and extreme scenarios, Anthropic explicitly says coders and call service center agents may have to switch into professions such as electrician and nurse because those occupations are less exposed to AI.

• Anthropic excludes hyper-capable robots from its model and reports that some external reviewers questioned whether AI-exposed occupations would shrink at all, with others suggesting the extreme scenario is better understood as a thought experiment.