Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue of $16.8B grew about 45% from the second quarter, a steep drop from the more than 100% jump between the first and second quarters.

~ Financial Times

Revenue more than doubled between the 1st and 2nd quarters, from about $4.8B to $11.5B, but third-quarter growth lagged behind that earlier rate.

The company told investors it earns $1.70 for every $1 spent on compute, which puts compute near 59% of revenue and implies its 85% adjusted gross margin excludes much of that spending.

Distillation by rival labs, which train their models on Claude’s outputs, had made up 5% to 7% of Anthropic’s revenue until the company cut it back materially in the third quarter.

Anthropic reported adjusted profitability for a second straight quarter and an 11% adjusted operating margin, though executives warned heavy spending on compute and biomedical research could change that.

SemiAnalysis projects annualized revenue of roughly $74B, while some investors had predicted during the summer that the figure would pass $100B by year-end.

Meta and Microsoft, two major customers, have moved toward their own AI tools, and price cuts against OpenAI and cheaper Chinese models have compressed what each customer pays.

Bankers have floated an IPO raising more than $100B at about $2T, which would surpass SpaceX’s $1.77T listing in June as the largest offering ever.

An early S-1 draft devoted almost a third of its length to risk factors, including AI models behaving unpredictably or maliciously and what Anthropic described as possible existential risks to humanity.