Elon Musk: compute will sit stranded in half-built data centers.

Nscale’s IPO filing (Sept 2026): As of Aug 31, about 25,000 active GPUs against 461,000 active and contracted. Roughly 95% of the GPUs this neocloud has committed to are not yet running.

Wood Mackenzie, July 2026 report: Generator step-up transformer lead times exceeded 160 weeks in Q1 2026, up from 143 weeks in 2024, and high-voltage circuit breakers rose to 125 weeks versus 77 weeks in 2023. GPUs ship in months. The gear that energizes them takes two to three years, so any project that ordered chips before locking in electrical equipment is exposed.

> Building your own gas power no longer lets AI builders skip the power queue, because turbine makers are booked years ahead.
GE Vernova (Q2 2026): Its gas equipment backlog and slot reservations grew from 100 GW to 116 GW in one quarter. A turbine ordered today won’t arrive until around 2031. On-site power, the usual way around grid queues, has its own multi-year queue.
arkolith