Exponential View 解读 Anthropic S-1：营收增长 1,089%，2026 年或实现盈利

Every technology platform reaches a moment in its lifecycle when startups prepare to enter the public markets. Anthropic seems set to go public first, and yesterday Reuters got hold of a copy of its IPO prospectus, the S-1.

We sent an analysis out for readers of the earlier today, sharing some of our forecasts into 2026.

Here is the headline: the S-1 shows a business investing for growth, with the first signs of green shoots. Beyond the astonishing headline numbers- an $8bn operating loss for 2025 and a net loss of $42bn (bumped up by an accounting charge)- what do we see?

It is a business whose revenues are growing far faster than its costs. This trend will continue into 2026, when the company will likely turn a profit. We dig into this more here.

The company is nothing if not ambitious. It has $518bn in compute commitments over 7-10 years. About 80% of these, c $410bn, cannot be cancelled. Assuming Anthropic wants a decent margin, that means a trillion bucks give or take in sales over that period. Big numbers, but Anthropic’s annualised revenues will exceed $100bn by the end of 2026.

The rumour mill suggests Anthropic will go public in November.

The mental model behind it

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