Chamath 在斯坦福 AI Club 直言长周期任务"根本不work",复杂问题同样没被解决好,并拒绝用评测或跑 48 小时的脚本作为反驳。他警告若 AI 无法进入高度复杂环境,行业将跌入"幻灭低谷",而当前已投入数千亿甚至上万亿美元。他给出的方向是:需要一个符号空间来引导嵌入空间。
"Long-horizon tasks are still a joke. They do not work, and I do not care what anybody says. Do not show me a stupid evaluation. Do not tell me about some dumb script you ran for 48 hours. Long-horizon tasks are not handled well. They simply do not work."
- Chamath at Stanford AI Club
"2nd, complex problems also do not work. They are neither addressed nor handled well.
Why is this important? If AI develops like any other technology, we are going to experience an initial rise—the hype cycle. Then, we will see a natural contraction because, somehow and somewhere, something is going to fail. We are all going to see this, and then we will enter what is called the “trough of disillusionment.” I think the business and MBA folks will confirm whether that is true.
Afterward, you typically see the slow and gradual adoption of the real, final solution. This happened with the internet, and it has happened in many other cases.
The problem is that we are spending hundreds of billions, potentially trillions, of dollars trying to figure out how to cross this chasm. So, what do we do?
If we do not figure this out, people will reach the trough of disillusionment and say that AI was a joke. I think we need to be able to bring AI into highly complicated environments and make it work.
What is my solution? At a very basic level, you need a symbolic space that guides the embedded space."
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From "techniahqrobot" YouTube channel, (link in comment)
Eric Schmidt: If I could invest in only 1 AI theme, it would be long reasoning. A model that can stay on 1 problem for hours/days is a completely different thing from a model that answers and stops, and most people still have not priced that difference. ---- From "Blackstone and Eric Schmidt" YouTube channel, (link in comment)在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源:Rohan Paul · x.com