Peter McCrory· @PeterMcCrory · X·· 2 小时前AI 评分35
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@ben_moll 的澄清很好。 这些是模型隐含的增长情景，而非直接的 GDP 预测。 Anthropic 员工预期，随着 AI 被使用，模型能力会更强、扩散会更快、生产率提升会更大。在模型中，这些力量会加速增长。
正文 · 原文
Good clarification from @ben_moll .
These are model-implied scenarios for growth rather than direct GDP forecasts.
Anthropic staff expect more capable models, faster diffusion, and greater productivity gains from AI when its used. In the model, such forces accelerate growth.
Looking at the source https://www.anthropic.com/research/ai-expectations-gap, it’s actually very different from what @scaling01’s tweet makes it sound like: it’s not actually what the employees say about GDP growth; instead it’s their answers to other questions being fed into Anthropic’s econ model which generates the GDP numbers. I bet Anthropic employees would actually be more reasonable than the model when asked about GDP growth directly!在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Peter McCrory · x.com