Rohan Paul 引用 Apollo 数据:AI 采用在扩散但支出高度集中

Rohan Paul · @rohanpaul_ai · X·2026-09-26 07:38·42分钟前
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Rohan Paul 引用 Apollo 首席经济学家 Torsten Slok 的数据指出,前 10% 客户占模型推理支出的 99.5%、neocloud 支出的 99%,底层 90% 企业仅占 0.5% 和 1%。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai
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Rohan Paul 引用 Apollo 数据:AI 采用在扩散但支出高度集中

2026-09-26 07:38· 42分钟前
AI 导读

Rohan Paul 引用 Apollo 首席经济学家 Torsten Slok 的数据指出,前 10% 客户占模型推理支出的 99.5%、neocloud 支出的 99%,底层 90% 企业仅占 0.5% 和 1%。

AI adoption is spreading but AI spending remains concentrated.

"The top 10% of customers (in AI) account for 99.5% of model-serving spend and 99% of neocloud spend, leaving the bottom 90% of firms with 0.5% and 1%."

• Torsten Slok, Chief Economist/Partner of Apollo

The average firm in that top group is spending roughly 1,791x more on inference. For neoclouds, the gap is about 891x. The same calculation is only about 101x for non-AI SaaS and 48x for CRM. Apollo Academy

That is a very different economic shape from normal enterprise software. Software scales mostly with seats.

AI scales with machine work. 2 companies can both count as "AI adopters," while 1 runs a chatbot a few hundred times a month and the other has agents making millions of model calls every day. They look identical in an adoption chart and completely different in infrastructure revenue.

So counting AI customers can now be badly misleading.

So the next big unlock should turning today's huge low-spend tail into persistent machine workloads.

If ordinary companies start running agents continuously across support, coding, sales, operations and back-office work, infrastructure demand can grow far faster than the number of AI customers, because the real unit of growth is no longer the customer in the AI era.

It is the amount of work the machines are doing.

Rohan PaulCombined capital-spending outlook for hyperscalers, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle across 2026-2027 is now about 66% above where it stood when 202...

来源:Rohan Paul· x.com