AI 智能体 token 消耗或 2030 年增长 24 倍

Rohan Paul · @rohanpaul_ai · X·2026-09-26 02:59·19分钟前
AI 导读

高盛预计 AI 智能体的 token 用量到 2030 年将增长 24 倍,月消耗量或达 120 quadrillion,而每 token 推理成本每年下降 60%-70%。Uber 和微软已开始重新审视昂贵的智能体使用成本:智能体需规划、调用工具、检查结果并反复纠错,单次请求的 token 消耗可达普通问答的 10 倍、50 倍甚至更多。纳德拉此前表示,智能体市场规模可能比云大数个数量级。

Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai
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AI 智能体 token 消耗或 2030 年增长 24 倍

2026-09-26 02:59· 19分钟前
AI 导读

高盛预计 AI 智能体的 token 用量到 2030 年将增长 24 倍,月消耗量或达 120 quadrillion,而每 token 推理成本每年下降 60%-70%。Uber 和微软已开始重新审视昂贵的智能体使用成本:智能体需规划、调用工具、检查结果并反复纠错,单次请求的 token 消耗可达普通问答的 10 倍、50 倍甚至更多。纳德拉此前表示,智能体市场规模可能比云大数个数量级。

Goldman Sachs earlier said: "Token use by AI agents is expected to multiply 24X by 2030"

AI agents are now creating the first serious cost test for the AI boom. As was reported this week, Uber and Microsoft are already rethinking expensive agent usage.

A chatbot may answer once, but an agent plans, calls tools, checks results, edits mistakes, and repeats the loop.

That loop can make one user request consume 10x, 50x, or even far more tokens than a normal answer.

Goldman’s bullish case is that monthly token use could reach 120 quadrillion by 2030, while inference cost per token keeps falling 60%-70% per year.

The fight is now between agent productivity and token waste.

Rohan PaulSatya Nadella: The agent market could be orders of magnitude bigger than cloud. "We build platforms that people find valuable and as long as we do that in fact ...

来源:Rohan Paul· x.com