# Epoch 估算达到同等基准分数的 AI 成本自 2023 年起每季度下降约 47%

- 来源：Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)
- 发布时间：2026-09-23 14:13
- AIHOT 分数：62
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.news/items/cmudqhi6k0oh8roggeh25txcq
- 原文链接：https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2102642576021184808

## AI 摘要

Epoch AI 估算，自 2023 年以来达到固定基准分数的 AI 成本每季度下降约 47%，约合每年 13 倍降幅。在 GPQA Diamond 上，OpenAI 的 o3 需要 75% 分数约每题 $0.30，不到 18 个月后 GPT-5.6 Luna 以 $0.0004 达到同等水平，成本下降 725 倍。

## 正文

AI costs are indeed dropping dramatically.

On GPQA Diamond, Epoch estimates OpenAI's o3 model needed about $0.30 per question to reach a 75% score.

Under 18 months later, GPT-5.6 Luna matched that level for $0.0004, a 725x cost drop.

Overall, Epoch estimates matching a fixed benchmark score has become about 47% cheaper each quarter since 2023.

That works out to roughly a 13x annual cost reduction across its five primary benchmarks.

Unlike earlier token-price studies, Epoch measures the dollars needed to reach the same benchmark accuracy over time.

It estimates each model’s cost-performance curve by replaying benchmark transcripts under tighter token budgets, using a method adapted from CAISI.

AI’s decline is 54x faster than electricity, 18x than batteries, 6x than compute and 4x than DNA sequencing.

### 引用推文

> Epoch AI：AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023. That...