# Noam Brown：AI 预测视野从 12 个月缩至 3 个月

- 来源：Haider. (@haider1)
- 发布时间：2026-09-18 02:30
- AIHOT 分数：39
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.news/items/cmu5v97su03hiroiqjmc8tu6x
- 原文链接：https://x.com/haider1/status/2100653512967545171

## AI 摘要

OpenAI 研究员 Noam Brown 称，一位研究 Navier-Stokes 的研究者过去能较有把握地预测 AI 12 个月后的进展，如今连 3 个月都不敢预测。他表示，人们谈论 2030 年，但他不知道 2030 年的世界会是什么样。该言论出自 Dwarkesh Patel 的新一期播客，节目还讨论了多智能体、数学进展与递归自我改进、对齐何时算解决等话题。

## 正文

OpenAI researcher Noam Brown:

"a researcher working on the Navier-Stokes told me he used to feel comfortable predicting where AI would be 12 months out. now he won't go beyond 3 months"

You talk about 2030 — I don't know what the world looks like in 2030

That's the truth

### 引用推文

> Dwarkesh Patel：New episode with @polynoamial We talk about multi-agent, Navier-Stokes, and what the current explosion of maths progress tells us about what happens once you au...