SemiAnalysis 谈特朗普任内 AI 监管可能性

SemiAnalysis · @SemiAnalysis_ · X·2026-09-17 09:56·1小时前
AI 导读

SemiAnalysis 认为特朗普任内出现 AI 监管的概率大于不出现,且可能在其任期内落地。推文引述观点称,顾问团队可能因相信 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的诚意而开始担忧,也可能因任内发生严重事件而被迫出手。监管路径或类似贸易协议:先出初步框架启动监管流程,后续再完善,以便在选举时宣称"我们率先监管了 AI"。

SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_
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SemiAnalysis 谈特朗普任内 AI 监管可能性

2026-09-17 09:56· 1小时前
AI 导读

SemiAnalysis 认为特朗普任内出现 AI 监管的概率大于不出现,且可能在其任期内落地。推文引述观点称,顾问团队可能因相信 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的诚意而开始担忧,也可能因任内发生严重事件而被迫出手。监管路径或类似贸易协议:先出初步框架启动监管流程,后续再完善,以便在选举时宣称"我们率先监管了 AI"。

Regulating AI matters. On either side of the table, the question is no longer whether it happens. It is who gets to say they did it first.

"I think it's totally possible Trump regulates AI too."

"There is a world where the advisors really internalize that OpenAI and Anthropic are being genuine, and they start to get scared. That's one possibility. And then there is another possibility where something really bad actually happens during his term and it forces his hand. I think these are both possible."

"I would actually bet that we see AI regulation during Trump's term. I think it's more likely than not."

"They are going to make a preliminary framework to begin the regulated process of AI. It's like a trade deal. This is our first framework, and then they'll refine it afterward. But that way, come election time, they'll be like, we regulated AI. We are the first ones to do it."

来源:SemiAnalysis· x.com