I cannot emphasize enough how much GPT-6 Astra and Fable 5.1 are already enough for transformative impact in large sections of the economy. They can reliably do weeks worth of human work when properly guided & harnessed.
Those effects will not be all at once and be uneven, but the fact that change will occur is inevitable no matter how the frontier is paced. But inevitable change does not mean the type of change is inevitable. It is increasingly important that we develop & share models of AI-human work that enhance, rather than only replace, human labor. The labs have a role to play in doing this, but so do companies and industries experimenting with AI adoption, as well as policy makers who can incentivize this sort of inplemenation.
This work is important regardless of existential risk, and needs a lot more focus.