# Chollet：AI 灭绝风险与监管逻辑二选一

- 来源：François Chollet (@fchollet)
- 发布时间：2026-09-13 09:06
- AIHOT 分数：29
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.news/items/cmtz55wtp0ucdroup1mhqgkes
- 原文链接：https://x.com/fchollet/status/2098941385579897285

## AI 摘要

Francois Chollet 指出，若 AI 真有可能在数年或数十年内导致人类灭绝，唯一理性的做法就是自上而下的严格政府介入与普遍批准的国际条约，类似核能与核不扩散机制。他认为只有两种自洽立场：要么灭绝风险真实存在并采取最强硬监管，要么风险不实、实际风险温和，只需温和安全措施与自我认证。不能一边说这可能在你有生之年终结人类，一边完全靠临场发挥。

## 正文

If there really is a high chance of AI leading to the extinction of humanity within years/decades, then the only rational stance towards safety monitoring and research pacing should be stringent, top-down government involvement and universally ratified international treaties. Similar to what we have been doing for a long time with nuclear energy and nuclear weapons non-proliferation.

If that's not what we're doing, then we must infer that the risk isn't being seriously considered by anyone involved.

There are only two options that make sense here:

1. The near-term species extinction risk is real and we are taking it seriously, with maximally heavy-handed regulation.
2. The extinction risk isn't real, actual risks are mild, so we're only pursuing mild safety measures and self-certification.

But you cannot say "yes this is likely to end humanity in your lifetime, and we're going to completely wing it." That is simply not rational.