Peter McCrory· @PeterMcCrory · X·· 2026-09-12AI 评分42
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Anthropic 首席经济学家 Peter McCrory 回应外界批评，承认其经济情景分析模型存在重要局限：模型只聚焦 AI 转型的供给侧，即 AI 能做什么、扩散多快、工人转岗多快。该模型假设价格灵活且总需求等于经济产能，因此无法生成"冲击压低需求、进而放大自身劳动力市场后果"的负反馈。
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This is an important limitation of the model. We focus on the supply side of the AI transition (what AI can do, how fast it spreads, how quickly workers change jobs).
Prices are flexible and aggregate demand is equal to what the economy can produce.
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Anthropic's economic scenario analysis is interesting. But this is not something you can ignore, this is the most important consideration! "the model cannot generate the negative feedback in which disruption depresses demand and amplifies its own labor-market consequences"在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Peter McCrory · x.com