Anthropic 经济团队发布新模型，推演 AI 到 2030 年对经济增长、就业和工资的影响。其极端情景假设 AI 在绝大多数知识工作任务上比人更强、几乎全自主完成且不再创造新任务，需递归自我改进的 AI 并快速被知识工作采用；届时 GDP 年增速达 15%，经济每 4.5 年翻倍，但知识工作就业岗位大幅减少，失业率超过典型衰退水平。
Anthropic: "In the extreme scenario, AI is more productive than humans at the vast majority of knowledge-work tasks. It does nearly all of them autonomously, and it creates essentially no new knowledge tasks for people.
This scenario would likely require recursively self-improving AI, adopted quickly for knowledge work.
As AI diffuses, annual GDP growth rates reach 15% a year, leading the economy to double in size every 4.5 years. As a society, we’re far richer than we’ve ever been, but many fewer workers have jobs in knowledge work, and unemployment has risen beyond typical recessionary levels."
Anthropic’s Economics team is sharing a new model of how AI might affect economic growth, jobs, wages, and more by 2030. Explore the scenarios, tell us what you think will happen, and see how your answers compare to more than 10,000 Americans. https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Rohan Paul · x.com