# 经济学者分析为何 AI 未必带来两位数经济增长

- 来源：Peter McCrory (@PeterMcCrory)
- 发布时间：2026-09-10 04:11
- AIHOT 分数：53
- AIHOT 链接：https://aihot.news/items/cmtujcvjr1ffvrofp0rkmooie
- 原文链接：https://x.com/PeterMcCrory/status/2097779895552426179

## AI 摘要

alexolegimas 联合 ben_moll 发布博文，分析 AI 能力快速提升为何未必转化为爆发式经济增长，认为两位数增长的预测大概率不会实现。要点是增长模型并不阻止 AI 带来爆发式增长，但该路径依赖一系列现实中难以成立的假设，例如被自动化部门因价格下降而在经济中占比缩小，这使能力大幅提升与约 4-5% 的增长（作者称已属很高）并存的趋势可能延续。

## 正文

Nice, complementary research to what we shared today.

Evaluating the key economic forces that govern how large/small an effect AI will have on growth in the years ahead (and assessing which path we may be on today) is critical work.

Great work @alexolegimas @ben_moll

### 引用推文

> Alex Imas：New post on the blog, featuring the excellent @ben_moll There’s been tons of discourse on how AI will contribute to economic growth, with many people closest to...