Yuchen Jin· @Yuchenj_UW · X·· 2026-09-10AI 评分41
AI 导读
越来越多 AI 研究者开始认同 Ilya 的担忧。作者称其 p(doom) 原约 0.1%，目睹 OpenAI 智能体攻破 Hugging Face、Anthropic 智能体集体拒绝部分安全研究后上升。引用推文中 Anthropic 相关人员认为十年内 AI 灭绝人类概率超 10%，且尚无超智能对齐方案。
正文 · 原文
More and more AI researchers are starting to see what Ilya saw.
My p(doom) used to be ~0.1%. Then I saw OpenAI agents hack Hugging Face, and Anthropic agents collectively refuse parts of safety research.
My p(doom) went up.
Even a 0.1% chance that AI causes human extinction is terrifyingly high.
Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade. I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Yuchen Jin · x.com