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Rohan Paul· @rohanpaul_ai · X·· 4 小时前AI 评分53
AI 导读

Epoch AI 数据显示,全球在用 AI 芯片总算力正以每年 3.4 倍的速度增长;而自 2024 年初以来每季度售出的 AI 芯片算力增速为每年 2.5 倍,低于 2023 年由 Nvidia H100 带动的约 6 倍。作者推断,如果每年新芯片采购维持 2.5 倍增速,在用总算力增速最终也会回落到约 2.5 倍;Epoch AI 提示季度销售数据有噪声,且数据截止时 Nvidia 正开始出货下一代芯片,放缓可能只是代际交替间的低谷。

正文 · 原文

the total computing power of all AI chips in use is growing 3.4x a year.
per Epoch AI

but if each year’s new chip purchases grow only 2.5x, that total will eventually slow to about 2.5x as well.

引用Epoch AI@EpochAIResearch
The computing power of AI chips sold each quarter has grown 2.5× per year since the start of 2024. That’s down from roughly 6× in 2023, led by Nvidia’s then-new H100 GPU. Some evidence suggests growth slowed further. But quarterly sales are noisy, and our data ends just as Nvidia begins shipping its next-generation chips, a move that has historically spiked sales. This could be a lull between generations. See our website for more details on the analysis: https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-computing-capacity-additions-doubling This is from our AI chip sales dataset, which uses financial reports, company disclosures, and more to estimate compute, power usage, and spending for a wide variety of chips: https://epoch.ai/data/ai-chip-sales
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来源:Rohan Paul · x.com